Top 4 Elections To Watch Out For In 2022

Top 4 Elections To Watch Out For In 2022

Leadership changes are known to create uncertainty in the market, particularly when it concerns global leaders or large economies. This is an essential look at the four elections that will matter for traders this year.

France – Presidential (10/05/22)

Only one French president survived a re-election campaign in the 80s. Incumbent candidate Emmanuel Macron is currently heading the polls for the 2022 presidential election, the first round scheduled for 10 April.

Pro-European, Macron is pushing for further investment as opposed to his Eurosceptic opponents who advocate for a frugal approach. These elections are important for two reasons. First, Angela Merkel’s departure from leadership left France’s Macron as the most likely contender for steering the EU into an economic rebound; in case of loss, whoever succeeds him is unlikely to share the same pro-European views and push for a more national and protectionist stance.

Brazil – Presidential (22/10/2022)

Jair Bolsonaro, current president of Brazil, should run for a second four-year term and could have as his main opponent former president Lula (at the head of Brazil from 2003 to 2011), back on the political scene.

Bolsonaro is well behind in the polls, according to which Lula, the leader of the left, convicted of corruption and then cleared by the Supreme Court, is given the lead in the first round with 10 to 27 points ahead. Not yet a candidate, Lula could declare himself in the first quarter of 2022.

Brazil is a large producer of both fossil and biofuels, as well as a global agro-power. The electoral fight could drive the country’s economy towards either a continued reliance on extractive industries or a greener economy, boosting businesses in either sector.

Australia – General (Between March and May 2022)

Top global exporter of coal, Australia is keeping a strong footing in its fossil industries, with current centre-right PM Scott Morrison pledging this support. He declared in 2021 that Australia would achieve net-zero by 2050 but does not plan to translate it into law.

Morrison’s opponent Anthony Albanese and his Labor party currently ranks higher in polls on international relations and climate change, showing it will be a tight race.

US – Mid-terms (08/11/2022)

All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for renewal, as well as a third of the 100 seats in the US Senate. These elections take their name from the fact that they take place halfway through the four-year presidential term and punctuate domestic politics.

They are traditionally delicate for the ruling party. With a majority in both chambers of Congress, the American president wants to preserve this advantage. Joe Biden’s current unpopularity (43% approve of his action, 53% disapprove of it) could also weigh on the results of the Democrats in the November elections.

Disclaimer: This article is not investment advice or an investment recommendation and should not be considered as such. The information above is not an invitation to trade and it does not guarantee or predict future performance. The investor is solely responsible for the risk of their decisions. The analysis and commentary presented do not include any consideration of your personal investment objectives, financial circumstances or needs.

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