Emmanuel Macron Re-elected for a Second Term… But the Market Falls again

Centrist Emmanuel Macron secured another 5 years in his tenure as the French president in Sunday’s second-round run-off of the French elections. Macron took victory with 58.54 percent of the vote compared with 41.46 for his far-right rival, Marine Le Pen.

With his win, Macron is the first president in two decades to get re-elected for a second term. But his defeat over Le Pen was narrower than their previous face-off. In 2017’s second round of the French elections, the incumbent president won with a triumphant 66.1 percent against Le Pen’s 33.9 percent. “Our country is beset by doubts and divisions,” Macron acknowledged in his victory speech Sunday night in front of the Eiffel Tower in Paris. “Today’s vote requires us to consider all the hardships of people’s lives and to respond effectively to them and to the anger expressed.

Undeniably, Macron’s victory for a second term prompted a sigh of relief throughout Europe and NATO. “Congratulations to Emmanuel Macron on your re-election as president of France.” the UK prime minister, Boris Johnson, tweeted, before adding: “France is one of our closest and most important allies. I look forward to continuing to work together on the issues which matter most to our two countries and to the world.” US President, Joe Biden, also shared his congratulations to the newly re-elected, tweeting “Congratulations to @EmmanuelMacron on his re-election. France is our oldest ally and a key partner in addressing global challenges. I look forward to our continued close cooperation — including on supporting Ukraine, defending democracy, and countering climate change.” Similar congratulatory messages were shared by numerous world leaders, such as Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and Italy’s Prime Minister Mario Draghi.

However, it seems that the relief over Macron’s re-election was short-lived, with concerns about the global growth outweighing the investors’ positive feelings regarding Sunday’s elections outcome. The euro, initially opened higher on Monday morning, only to fall 0.34% against the US dollar to $1.07725, nearing its lowest since the Covid-19 hysteria started around early 2020.

Furthermore, Monday saw Asian markets suffering a rout trading session. Signs that China’s capital, Beijing, may follow in Shanghai’s footsteps into a hard lockdown, triggered a 5 percent plunge in the Shanghai Composite, its worst trading day in over a year. On Tuesday’s morning trade, the Shanghai Composite recovered 0.94%. Similarly, the Hang Seng lost 3.59 percent on Monday’s trading session but gained 1.83 percent on Tuesday’s morning trade.

As concerns over oil supply carry on, oil prices sharply declined in Monday’s trading session. Both Brent crude futures and US West Texas Intermediate took a hit of around 4% on Monday’s trading session, with Brent price falling over $7 a barrel and WTI falling about $6 a barrel. On Tuesday’s early morning, oil prices opened slightly higher, climbing about 0.2 percent.

As Rob Carnell, ING’s chief economist in Asia, argues, “There is a lot for markets to worry about at the moment and that is trumping the effect of Macron’s win,” with fears over China’s Covid-19 outbreaks and the ongoing war in Ukraine being two major concerns for markets.   

Disclaimer: This article is not investment advice or an investment recommendation and should not be considered as such. The information above is not an invitation to trade and it does not guarantee or predict future performance. The investor is solely responsible for the risk of their decisions. The analysis and commentary presented do not include any consideration of your personal investment objectives, financial circumstances, or needs.

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